EBRD forecasts economic slowdown for 2022 in the southern and eastern Mediterranean

May 11, 2022
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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is projecting a slowdown in economic growth for the southern and eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region in 2022, to 2.5 per cent, according to its latest Regional Economic Prospects (REP) report.

The forecast is largely in line with the Bank’s economic update of March 2022, which revised down its November forecast of 4.3 per cent growth this year.

The impact of the war on Ukraine on the SEMED region will primarily be felt through higher oil and food prices for consumers, as well as secondary effects on budgets, food security and medium-term growth drivers. All countries in the region depend on imported petroleum products, while several – including Egypt, Tunisia and Jordan – depend on imported food products as well.

In addition, there is likely to be a negative impact on tourism in some SEMED countries, although new opportunities could arise in the area of renewable energy investments, given the countries’ potential in this regard.

Higher growth of 4.8 per cent is forecast for 2023 as the recovery gathers pace in most countries and as economic and governance reforms in all countries advance and give a boost to the recovery.

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Press release

Countries covered:

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Israel
  • Jordan
  • Lebanon
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Palestine *
  • Syria *
  • Tunisia