Economic growth in the southern and eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region is expected to accelerate from 2.5 per cent in 2024 to 3.7 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026, according to the EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report. The uptick began at the end of 2024 after mostly muted growth caused by a prolonged period of regional instability and a sharp contraction in output in Lebanon as a result of the war with Israel.
Despite the positive outlook for the next two years, significant downside risks remain, such as the resumption of wars, uncertainty surrounding foreign aid and tariff policies as well as climate-related shocks. The new report, entitled “Weaker momentum amid fragmenting trade and investment”, highlights subdued global growth momentum and a persistent gap between the performance of advanced European economies and that of the United States of America.